The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will get Sunday’s playoff action started when these AFC East rivals go toe-to-toe during Super Wild Card Weekend.
This will be the rubber match between these two teams as each defended their home field throughout the regular season. However, the big difference between those games and what we’re slated to see this weekend is the fact that Tua Tagovailoa will not be under center for the Dolphins as he has yet to be cleared by doctors after suffering another concussion. Naturally, that has sent this spread flying to what is a slate-high 13 points in favor of Buffalo.
Below, we will examine the different betting angles for this matchup. We will provide picks from both CBS Sports and SportsLine experts on this AFC wild-card showdown, as well as a few player props that we view as enticing.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 15 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Odds: Bills -13.5, O/U 43.5
Dolphins at Bills spread picks
Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
“The quarterback situation is in flux for Miami, but I don’t think it matters who plays. The Dolphins played well in losing to the Bills late in the season, but that won’t be the case here. Josh Allen and the offense will light up the Dolphins defense, while the Bills will limit the Miami big plays. The Bills will be moving on.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he is taking the Bills to win, 34-21. To see the rest of his picks for the weekend, click here.
SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein entered the 2022 NFL season 427-344 all time on NFL side picks (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. He also went 68-50 ATS and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552. If that doesn’t make you want to back him, Hartstein is also 26-14-1 (+1044) on his last 41 picks involving the Dolphins, meaning he’s uniquely qualified to make this pick. We can tell you that Hartstein is leaning Under the total, but he has found a key X factor that makes one side of the spread a must bet! To see what that is, head on over to SportsLine.
“If the Dolphins are going to have any chance of winning this game, they’re going to have to figure out how to run the ball. When these two teams played in Buffalo back in Week 15, the Dolphins kept it close, thanks in large part to the fact that they rushed for nearly 200 yards. … The crazy thing is that I think the Dolphins are actually going to be able to run the ball, but that being said, I only have one rule when it comes to picking playoff games and that rule is that if I don’t know who your starting quarterback is going to be, then I can’t pick your team to win. No matter who the Dolphins throw out there on Sunday, that QB won’t be better than Josh Allen.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he is taking the Bills to win, but only by a touchdown. To see all of his picks for Super Wild Card Weekend, click here.
“Tua Tagovailoa will not play in this playoff opener as Mike McDaniel announced on Wednesday that the quarterback has still not been cleared by doctors after suffering another concussion a few weeks ago. That means, it’ll either be Teddy Bridgewater — who is dealing with a dislocated finger in his throwing hand — or rookie Skyler Thompson. No matter who is ultimately under center, the scoring ceiling for Miami has fallen dramatically and Buffalo should win this game rather easily.
“With this line still sitting under two touchdowns, I’ll lean in the Bills’ direction and lay the 13 points. … Meanwhile, Josh Allen has never lost to the Dolphins at home (5-0) in his career and the Bills are averaging 32.6 points per game against Miami with him as the starter. Buffalo has also been a strong bet at home in the postseason, historically. Since the 1970 merger, the Bills are 12-1 ATS at home and own a +13.6 point per game differential.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan explaining why he is laying the 13 points and rolling with Buffalo. To see his picks for the weekend, click here.
Dolphins at Bills total pick
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It also enters Super Wild Card Weekend on an incredible 161-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season. For this game, we can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, but it also has one side of the spread that cashes in over 50% of simulations. To see which side that is, go check out SportsLine.
Player props
Josh Allen total passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-179). Not crazy value, but Allen has tossed multiple touchdowns against Miami in both matchups this season, including a four-touchdown performance back in Week 15. In 10 career games against the Dolphins, Allen has thrown 27 touchdowns, which is the most against any of his opponents. So long as he follows that 2.7 passing touchdown average, this cashes.
Dawson Knox total receptions: Over 3.5 (+104). Knox has proven to be a trusted option for Allen in the passing game and has a favorable matchup against Miami. Back in Week 15, Knox caught six of his season-high eight targets for 98 yards. Knox also caught all four of his targets against the Dolphins back in Week 3 as well. At plus money, there’s strong value with the heavily involved pass catcher.
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown (+200). As we noted above, Allen likes throwing to Knox, particularly in the red area. Knox has four touchdown catches in his last four games. Why not make it five in a row?
